Every year we try and guess the Oscar® nominations in the 6 major categories: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor and Best Supporting Actress.
Over the years we have done pretty well in our predictions. Usually we get at least 80% correct. With one year reaching as high as 97% correct. So without further ado……our 2018 Oscar® Nomination Predictions.
*So the nominations are in….we got 88.23% correct.
Best Picture Oscar® Nominee Predictions:
- The Big Sick – thinking this is going to sneak in – 30% chance of nomination. Wrong!
- Call Me By Your Name – will get nominated – 85% chance of nomination. Bingo!
- Dunkirk – has a chance to win – 99% chance of nomination. Bingo!
- The Florida Project – movie has lots of support – 75% chance of nomination. Wrong!
- Get Out – movie might sneak out a win – 90% chance of nomination Bingo!
- Lady Bird – Oscar voters love this movie – 80% chance of nomination. Bingo!
- The Post – – 65% chance of nomination. Bingo!
- The Shape of Water – No doubt – 99% chance of nomination. Bingo!
- Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri – No doubt – Bingo
Others that might sneak in: I, Tonya, All The Money in The World, Wonder Woman & Phantom Thread.
Missed on Phanton Menace and Darkest Hour……as I went with The Big Sick and The Florida Project
Score 77.77%
Best Actor Oscar® Nominee Predictions:
- Timothee Chalamet in Call Me By Your Name Bingo!
- Daniel Day-Lewis in Phantom Thread Bingo!
- Daniel Kaluuya in Get Out Bingo!
- Gary Oldman in Darkest Hour Bingo!
- Denzel Washington in Roman J. Israel, Esq. Bingo!
Others that might sneak in: Tom Hanks in The Post, Christian Bale in Hostiles, James Franco* in The Disaster Artist and Jake Gyllenaal in Stronger. * Even though the voting was only two days away from ending when Franco’s issues appeared….not thinking his name will be called on Tuesday.
Perfect Score 100%
Best Actress Oscar® Nominee Predictions:
- Sally Hawkins in The Shape of Water Bingo!
- Frances McDormand in Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri Bingo!
- Margot Robbie in I, Tonya Bingo!
- Saoirse Ronan in Lady Bird Bingo!
- Meryl Streep in The Post Bingo!
Others that might sneak in: 4 of the 5 spots seemed to be set….with Margot Robbie just edging out Jessica Chastain in Molly’s Game. Michelle Williams in All The Money in the World is another to watch out for on Tuesday morning.
Perfect Score 100%
Best Supporting Actor Oscar® Nominee Predictions:
- William Dafoe in The Florida Project Bingo!
- Woody Harrelson in Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri Bingo!
- Richard Jenkins in The Shape Of Water Bingo!
- Christopher Plummer in All The Money in The Word Bingo!
- Sam Rockwell in Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri Bingo!
Others that might sneak in: Armie Hammer in Call Me By Your Name, Idris Elba in Molly’s Game and Michael Stuhlbarg in Call Me By Your Name.
Perfect Score 100%
Best Supporting Actress Oscar® Nominee Predictions:
- Mary J. Blige in Mudbound Bingo!
- Holly Hunter in The Big Sick Bingo!
- Allison Janney in I, Tonya Bingo!
- Laurie Metcalf in Lady Bird Bingo!
- Octavia Spencer in The Shape of Water Bingo!
Others that might sneak in: Hong Chau in Downsizing, Lesley Manville in Phantom Thread and Kristin Scott Thomas in Darkest Hour
Missed on Lesley Manville for Phantom Thread….as I went with Holly Hunter
Perfect Score 80%
Best Director Oscar® Nominee Predictions:
- Greta Gerwig for Lady Bird Bingo!
- Martin McDonagh for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri Wrong!
- Christopher Nolan for Dunkirk Bingo!
- Jordan Peele for Get Out Bingo!
- Guillermo del Toro for The Shape of Water Bingo!
Others that might sneak in: Sean Baker for The Florida Project, Steven Spielberg for The Post, Ridley Scott for All The Money In The World and Luca Guadagnino for Call Me By Your Name
Missed on Paul Thomas Anderson for Phantom Thread….as I went with Martin McDonagh
Perfect Score 80%
So based on our previous Oscar® guesses…..about 80% of these will be correct and 20% will be wrong…or 28 right and 7 wrong….find out Tuesday morning when the nominations get announced.
1 HI BRUCE. Bold of you to stick your neck out with Oscar predictions and your choices are at least sensible even if they are not all vindicated though I see you have a good past record.
2 I however gave up some time ago in trying to 2nd guess the Academy as on the occasions that I did my judgement/luck were not good. For example –
(1) I was convinced that Mumbles was going to win again for the 1973 Last Tango and when he didn’t I felt very disheartened. Back then I was naïve enough to believe that the Academy were going to allow Mr M the opportunity so soon after the Godpop fiasco the year before to throw a 2nd Oscar back in their face.
(2) That was poor judgment but bad luck can also come into play. Not normally a betting man I put a small wager on Russell Crowe winning for 2001’s A Beautiful Mind but could not have foreseen that on the eve of the Oscars ceremony he would create another of his public disturbances that the prickly Academy don’t like.
3 So nowadays I heed the advice of my Doris’ song in The 1956 Man Who Knew Too Much Que Sera Sera “the future’s not ours to see,” but I’ll be interested in seeing how your predictions pan out. Whatever your success rate though I’m sure Joe could have bettered it!
Hey Bob
1. I am happy with almost 90%…..sadly this has been an exercising of reading “between the lines” of the Hollywood political field…versus just looking at the best of 2017.
2. That would have been interesting if Brando could have pulled off the back to back wins…..many think Last Tango In Paris is his best performance…..I am not in that group…as I have not enjoyed any of the viewings of that movie…..or his A Streetcar Named Desire. To me his best performances are in On The Waterfont, The Godfather and on the lighter side….The Freshmen.
3. Poor Mr. Crowe…the Beautiful Mind was the top of the mountain…for not only him….but Ron Howard as well.
4. I think even Joel would have had a hard time topping my 30 for 34 showing this year.
Thanks for the visit and the feedback.
1 HI BRUCE In a book in which various movie specialists [who didn’t include Joel] gave their opinion of the greatest film PERFORMANCE of all time by any actor the highly respected film critic of the London Evening Standard Alexander Walker.selected Last Tango as the Great Mumbler’s very best though I do agree with you that the film was “dry goods” and indeed it was probably the sex along with the spin off from Brando’s Godpop comeback that made such a “little” film [actual budget of 800,000 dollars in 1972] so popular at the time.
2 However I’m fond of quoting Dalton in Road House 1989 that “opinions vary” and your own selection is probably as good as any and indeed one leading film critic over here suggested that the flop The Fugitive Kind was Mr Mumbles’ best shot.
3 Clearly though the Academy would have been mad to give Mr M another award that he might throw back in their face. However what do you think of the general practice of denying potentially deserving awards because of a star’s private activities [short of the likes of terrorism or murder of course!]? I mean if the Academy sincerely DID believe that Russell gave the best performance of 2002 was it fair to deny him the Oscar for an off-screen fracas?
4 There must be many actors who have been given awards but who even a naive young lady would hesitate to bring home to meet mother. And look at some of the sportsmen who are held up as role models but who are clearly not. For example we have one over here who was caught cheating with his own brother’s wife and yet has just been appointed to one of the highest positions in the sporting world. [Thank goodness for my Roger!]
5 I am not of course arguing for condoning bad behaviour which should be punished as appropriate within the context that suits it but simply querying if it should be allowed to affect entitlements in other matters. Also “Let him who is without sin cast the first stone,” Jesus invited us.
6 Anyway I would be interested in learning when he has the time to think about it what “Mr 90%” [but not Hirsch] thinks was the very greatest performance of each of his own idols Sir Maurice, Archie and Mr Demi Moore. For what it’s worth my own selection is respectively Little Voice, North by Northwest and 6th Sense.
Hey Bob….good information on Brando. As for your question….should off screen behavior matter when picking awards……that is difficult to answer. James Franco is a great example to look at right now. Before his “issues” he was a leading candidate for not only a nomination but an Oscar win. Now even though the voting was almost closed when those issues came to light….he is not one of the 5 that got nominated? That makes no “statistical sense…especially when the vote collectors have said the votes generally come in early rather than later.
So I am guessing….the Oscar powers moved the 6th place Actor….Denzel into the 5th spot and dumped Franco. Now if Franco is innocent in his “issues” then that is very unfair. But if Franco is guilty of his “issues” then the punishment seems fair. I can see the Oscar side of things…..they took a beating for Casey Affleck getting an Oscar win last year…and if Franco had gotten the nomination…..it would have been painted as the Academy not supporting the “Me Too” movement. Actually him getting the nomination with the “issues” would have been the top story and probably overshadowed all of the other nominees.
As for my favorite performances by my favorites….Mr. Bruce Willis….I think 12 Monkeys is his best performance with The Sixth Sense and Pulp Fiction not being to far behind.
Mr. Cary Grant…. tougher call…some many great performances…..the movie I re-watch the most is Father Goose….but Notorious, North by Northwest, The Awful Truth and Charade are not too far behind.
Mr. Michael Caine….The Man Who Would Be King….with Educating Rita, Hannah and Her Sisters, Sleuth and Dirty Rotten Scroundels being in the Top 5.
Good feedback.
HI BRUCE
1 Thanks for your observations about Oscar entitlement V personal conduct. .As always you make some good points which are food for thought.
2 The movies that you list for Sir Maurice, Archie, and Demi’s ex are all good choices though I’m a bit surprised that you didn’t list Sleuth for Sir M as he was in the running for a best actor Oscar for that one in such heady company as Olivier and [in the year of Godpop] Mumbles and it would be my own 2nd Micklewhite choice.
3 Sir M was also nominated for a Golden Globe for Sleuth Moreover Sir Maurice did win the Golden Globe for my own 1st choice Micklewhite performance, Little Voice. So ole Bob isn’t too faf out all the time!
BRUCE
Apologies I didn’t notice first time round that you had included Sleuth among Sir Maurice’s best performances. The world now makes sense again!
Hey Bob….I included Sleuth in my favorite Caine movies…..plus I have a video that gives my entire Caine Top 10. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_lu-WkrnJkY I have no videos compared to Steve’s massive collection.
How about Michael Stuhlbarg being in The Post, The Shape of Water and Call Me By Your Name.
Holly Hunter wasn’t nominated, Leslie Manville was (surprise to me). Denzel getting nominated in a picture that bombed badly and a number of critics saying it was his worst performance was a shock to me. I enjoyed Denzil in it, better than Flight (real Oscar bait and I abhored) or Fences (too stagey). Woody Harrelson getting nominated also was a surprise since most of the award shows only discussed McDormand and Rockwell.
Hey Dan
1. Michael Stuhlbarg had a great year for sure.
2. 3 Best Picture Nominees in one year…impressive…that is a Ward Bond stat.
3. Manville was the only acting nomination that I did not get right…..she was my 6th pick….I thought The Big Sick was going to get some more love.
4. Instead it was Phantom Menace that got the glory.
5. Usually they pick an older actor who has not gotten a nomination before….I guess Christopher Plummer fit that bill this year…though he has been nominated twice…winning once.
6. Denzel probably replaced Franco…Denzel pick kills two birds with one stone….a more diverse pick and avoid a publicity mess.
7. Woody is great in Three Billboards……so I was glad to see him get a nomination. He is the only really likable character in the movie…when looking at the leads of that movie.
Good feedback.
Whoa good work on the predictions Bruce, did you have some sort of inside info or something? 😉
Oldman and McDormand are likely locks for winning a statuette.
Three Billboards director didn’t get nominated? oh dear… but the film might still win Best Picture, it’s happened before even with that handicap. I don’t think The Shape of Water will win the big one, but Del Toro will probably win Best Director.
Hey Steve. Thanks for the kind words. I feel the predictions were so good this year…..because it was easier to guess the current climate in Hollywood……as some of the selections were for political positioning more than quality of movie or performance…..which in some ways is not the road I want the Academy to go down. Michael Caine has some strong opinions on this matter…..and I agree with him.
Oldman, McDormand, Rockwell, Janney and Coco seem like locks for wins in there categories. Which pretty much takes out some of the fun of the upcoming Big Night.
Best Picture is wide open……as for Three Billboards……in the old days….Director and Picture were tied together…..lately it seems the front runners split those awards….last year La La Land got Director and Moonlight got picture….I can see that happening with your scenario.
Good stuff.
Hey Bruce, it was a milestone event for comic book fans when Logan was nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay, a first for a comic book movie.
The newspapers here are making a big deal over the fact that 3 of the 5 Best Actor nominees are British – Daniel Day-Lewis, David Kaluuya and Gary Oldman.
I was surprised that this was Christopher Nolan’s first nomination for Best Director, I thought he had been nominated before for Interstellar or Inception. I like Del Toro but I’ll be rooting for Nolan to win.
Hey Steve….I was glad that Logan got some Oscar love. I did not like any of the previous Wolverine movies…..but I thought Logan was one of the best movies of the year.
3 Brits in one category? What is this the 1960s?….lol.
Yep…..Nolan got his first Best Director nomination….they were giving him the Spielberg treatment for awhile….but now he can sit at the “big boy” table.
Good stuff.